Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Panthers v Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

57%

43%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Panthers (Local)

Prediction 57.41%1.74fair odd

EV +1.62%

Edge +0.915%

Kelly +2.10%

Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

53.05%56.99%57.39%58.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.611.651.621.7762.11%60.70%61.73%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Visit)

Prediction 42.59%2.35fair odd

EV -2.90%

Edge -1.27%

Kelly -2.27%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.39%43.01%42.61%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.002.192.202.2850.00%45.57%45.45%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Panthers (Local): 57.41%; Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Visit): 42.59%. For Pittsburgh Panthers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.74. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV +1.62%E +0.915%K +2.10%G +0.034%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -14.83%E -7.41%K -14.83%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-16 16:59
LowVig.ag🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV +1.62%E +0.915%K +2.10%G +0.034%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -14.83%E -7.41%K -14.83%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-16 16:59
Caesars🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.12%E -2.47%K -6.15%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.31%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-16 16:59
theScore Bet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.12%E -2.47%K -6.15%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.31%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-16 16:59
1xBet🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -4.70%E -2.83%K -7.11%G +0.000%	2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -3.75%E -1.66%K -2.98%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-05-16 17:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.27%E -3.19%K -8.11%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.31%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-16 16:59
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -5.84%E -3.56%K -9.13%G +0.000%	2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -5.46%E -2.46%K -4.47%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-16 17:00
FanDuel🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -6.99%E -4.32%K -11.28%G +0.000%	2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -3.75%E -1.66%K -2.98%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-16 17:00
BetMGM🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.99%E -4.32%K -11.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.18%E -1.86%K -3.34%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-16 16:58
DraftKings🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -6.99%E -4.32%K -11.28%G +0.000%	2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -4.60%E -2.06%K -3.71%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-16 17:00
Betway🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -6.99%E -4.32%K -11.28%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -8.44%E -3.92%K -7.34%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-16 16:59
BetUS🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -7.57%E -4.70%K -12.40%G +0.000%	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -2.90%E -1.27%K -2.27%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-16 16:59
Bovada🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -7.57%E -4.70%K -12.40%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -4.18%E -1.86%K -3.34%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-16 16:58
BetRivers🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.57%E -4.70%K -12.40%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.31%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-16 17:00
Bally Bet🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.57%E -4.70%K -12.40%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.31%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-16 16:59
betPARX🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.57%E -4.70%K -12.40%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.31%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-16 16:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.