Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pepperdine Waves v Saint Mary's Gaels

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pepperdine Waves (Local)

Prediction 29.23%3.42fair odd
EV -0.613%
Edge -0.180%
Kelly -0.255%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.66%29.51%29.23%31.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.133.153.4034.48%31.92%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saint Mary's Gaels (Visit)

Prediction 70.77%1.41fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -6.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.08%70.49%70.77%72.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.331.331.3877.52%75.05%74.91%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pepperdine Waves (Local): 29.23%; Saint Mary's Gaels (Visit): 70.77%. For Pepperdine Waves (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -0.613%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -0.613%E -0.180%K -0.255%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -8.00%E -6.15%K -26.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-20 19:40
theScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -0.613%E -0.180%K -0.255%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -8.00%E -6.15%K -26.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-20 19:40
MyBookie.ag🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 28.35%EV -4.71%E -1.44%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.65%EV -8.71%E -6.75%K -30.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-20 23:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.46%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%EV -7.29%E -5.57%K -23.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-20 21:59
Caesars🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -2.34%E -1.70%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-20 17:20
BetRivers🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -15.23%E -5.25%K -8.01%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -3.75%E -2.76%K -10.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-20 17:59
betPARX🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -15.23%E -5.25%K -8.01%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -3.75%E -2.76%K -10.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-20 18:00
Bally Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -15.23%E -5.25%K -8.01%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -3.75%E -2.76%K -10.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-20 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.