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Penn State Nittany Lions v UCF Knights
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Penn State Nittany Lions (Local)
assuming max odds 6.75
UCF Knights (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.13
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Penn State Nittany Lions (Local): 15.71%; UCF Knights (Visit): 84.29%. For Penn State Nittany Lions (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.37. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.03%.
Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +6.03%E +0.894%K +1.05%G +0.063% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -6.44%E -5.80%K -58.51%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-01 17:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -1.82%E -0.291%K -0.347%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -6.44%E -5.80%K -58.51%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-01 15:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -2.61%E -0.421%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -6.44%E -5.80%K -58.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-01 15:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -5.75%E -0.958%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.44%E -5.80%K -58.51%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-01 09:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -5.75%E -0.958%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.44%E -5.80%K -58.51%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-01 09:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -5.75%E -0.958%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.44%E -5.80%K -58.51%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-01 09:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -5.75%E -0.958%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.28%E -6.62%K -72.79%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-01 09:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -9.68%E -1.68%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.59%E -4.99%K -46.61%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-01 15:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.54%EV -10.46%E -1.84%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.46%EV -4.75%E -4.20%K -36.54%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-01 00:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.52I 18.12%NM 16.87%EV -13.29%E -2.41%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.13%EV -5.59%E -4.99%K -46.61%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-01 17:55 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -13.60%E -2.47%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.59%E -4.99%K -46.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-01 14:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -13.60%E -2.47%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -6.44%E -5.80%K -58.51%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-01 11:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -23.03%E -4.70%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.26%EV -4.75%E -4.20%K -36.54%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-01 16:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -23.03%E -4.70%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.26%EV -4.75%E -4.20%K -36.54%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-01 16:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -23.03%E -4.70%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.26%EV -4.75%E -4.20%K -36.54%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-01 16:05 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 5.71I 17.51%NM 14.90% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 85.10% | 17.5% | 2026-04-01 17:20 |