Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penn State Nittany Lions v Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Kickoff: 2026-04-17 21:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penn State Nittany Lions (Local)

Prediction 32.22%3.10fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.19%32.39%32.40%34.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.872.903.0037.04%34.90%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Visit)

Prediction 67.78%1.48fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -7.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.38%67.61%67.60%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.401.4373.53%71.57%71.43%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Penn State Nittany Lions (Local): 32.22%; Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Visit): 67.78%. For Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.43, with an expected value of -3.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.35%E -1.12%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.46%E -4.68%K -16.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 15:54
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.35%E -1.12%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.81%E -5.75%K -21.70%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 12:24
Caesars🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.96%E -1.68%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.75%E -2.64%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-17 14:19
MyBookie.ag🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.17%EV -6.25%E -2.15%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.83%EV -6.46%E -4.68%K -16.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 16:04
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.57%E -2.27%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.10%E -3.64%K -12.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-17 03:57
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.57%E -2.27%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.46%E -4.68%K -16.99%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 12:04
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -8.18%E -2.87%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -7.81%E -5.75%K -21.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 17:19
1xBet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.10%EV -8.83%E -3.12%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -5.10%E -3.64%K -12.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 21:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.29%EV -11.73%E -4.28%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.71%EV -3.07%E -2.15%K -7.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-17 15:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.29%EV -11.73%E -4.28%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.71%EV -3.07%E -2.15%K -7.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-17 15:54
BetUS🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -13.02%E -4.82%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -3.07%E -2.15%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-17 15:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%5.3%2026-04-17 21:05