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Penn State Nittany Lions v Minnesota Golden Gophers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Penn State Nittany Lions (Local)
assuming max odds 4.60
Minnesota Golden Gophers (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.31
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Penn State Nittany Lions (Local): 26.31%; Minnesota Golden Gophers (Visit): 73.69%. For Penn State Nittany Lions (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.04%.
Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV +21.04%E +4.57%K +5.84%G +1.23% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -13.79%E -11.78%K -81.10%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-01 21:13 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.07%EV +2.10%E +0.540%K +0.728%G +0.015% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.93%EV -9.37%E -7.61%K -40.72%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-01 21:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -0.009%E -0.002%K -0.003%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -7.15%E -5.68%K -27.52%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-01 18:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -1.32%E -0.353%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -6.42%E -5.05%K -23.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-01 00:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -2.64%E -0.714%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -7.89%E -6.31%K -31.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-01 00:04 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -6.59%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.65%EV -6.42%E -5.05%K -23.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-01 18:13 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.71%EV -6.85%E -1.94%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.29%EV -4.94%E -3.83%K -17.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 12:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.71%EV -6.85%E -1.94%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.29%EV -4.94%E -3.83%K -17.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 12:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -3.47%E -2.65%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-01 15:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.94%E -3.83%K -17.05%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-01 15:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.89%E -6.31%K -31.57%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-01 14:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -4.94%E -3.83%K -17.05%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-01 13:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -5.68%E -4.44%K -20.29%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-01 18:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -5.68%E -4.44%K -20.29%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-01 18:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -5.68%E -4.44%K -20.29%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-01 18:05 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 56.14% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 43.86% | 78.1% | 2026-05-01 21:10 |