The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Oregon St Beavers v Cal Poly Mustangs

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 21:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oregon St Beavers (Local)

Prediction 80.84%1.24fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -10.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.21%80.70%81.04%83.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.171.171.2189.29%85.82%85.47%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit)

Prediction 19.16%5.22fair odd
EV +5.38%
Edge +0.977%
Kelly +1.19%
Growth +0.064%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.92%19.30%18.96%22.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.895.005.5024.39%20.46%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oregon St Beavers (Local): 80.84%; Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit): 19.16%. For Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.22. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -7.84%E -6.88%K -56.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +5.38%E +0.977%K +1.19%G +0.064%5.9%2026-04-11 19:30
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -9.46%E -8.44%K -78.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +5.38%E +0.977%K +1.19%G +0.064%7.5%2026-04-11 19:45
FanDuel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -7.03%E -6.12%K -46.89%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV +1.54%E +0.291%K +0.359%G +0.006%5.8%2026-04-11 19:35
1xBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -7.84%E -6.88%K -56.01%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV +0.586%E +0.112%K +0.138%G +0.001%6.8%2026-04-11 19:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.42%E -4.63%K -31.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.20%E -0.841%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 15:09
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.42%E -4.63%K -31.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.20%E -0.841%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 16:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.42%E -4.63%K -31.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.20%E -0.841%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 16:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.42%E -4.63%K -31.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.20%E -0.841%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 16:49
theScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.84%E -6.88%K -56.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -4.20%E -0.841%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 14:29
BetRivers🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -7.03%E -6.12%K -46.89%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -6.12%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 15:40
Bally Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -7.03%E -6.12%K -46.89%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -6.12%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 15:40
betPARX🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -7.03%E -6.12%K -46.89%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -6.12%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 15:40
BetUS🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -5.42%E -4.63%K -31.86%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -9.95%E -2.12%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 16:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -2.99%E -2.49%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -15.70%E -3.57%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 20:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -2.99%E -2.49%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -15.70%E -3.57%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 20:30
BetMGM🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -2.18%E -1.80%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -18.57%E -4.37%K -5.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 13:04
MyBookie.ag🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -2.18%E -1.80%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -21.45%E -5.23%K -6.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 19:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%5.1%2026-04-11 20:30