Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oregon St Beavers v Cal Poly Mustangs

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 00:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

75%

25%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oregon St Beavers (Local)

Prediction 74.59%1.34fair odd

EV +4.42%

Edge +3.16%

Kelly +11.05%

Growth +0.488%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.70%75.15%71.11%85.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.111.251.301.4090.09%79.80%76.92%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit)

Prediction 25.41%3.93fair odd

EV +65.19%

Edge +10.03%

Kelly +11.85%

Growth +7.73%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

14.59%24.85%28.89%32.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.854.113.176.5035.09%24.35%31.50%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oregon St Beavers (Local): 74.59%; Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit): 25.41%. For Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.93. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +65.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -17.21%E -15.50%K -156.45%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +65.19%E +10.03%K +11.85%G +7.73%	5.5%	2026-04-10 16:39
888sport🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -17.21%E -15.50%K -156.45%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV +52.48%E +8.75%K +10.50%G +5.51%	6.8%	2026-04-10 16:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -17.21%E -15.50%K -156.45%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV +52.48%E +8.75%K +10.50%G +5.51%	6.8%	2026-04-10 16:44
888sport (SE)🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -17.21%E -15.50%K -156.45%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV +52.48%E +8.75%K +10.50%G +5.51%	6.8%	2026-04-10 16:44
LowVig.ag🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.79%EV -11.99%E -10.16%K -66.60%G +0.000%	4.66I 21.46%NM 20.21%EV +18.43%E +3.95%K +5.04%G +0.928%	6.2%	2026-04-11 00:20
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.79%EV -11.99%E -10.16%K -66.60%G +0.000%	4.66I 21.46%NM 20.21%EV +18.43%E +3.95%K +5.04%G +0.928%	6.2%	2026-04-11 00:20
BetUS🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -11.99%E -10.16%K -66.60%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +14.36%E +3.19%K +4.10%G +0.589%	7.0%	2026-04-11 00:20
BetRivers🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -3.04%E -2.34%K -10.13%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -18.68%E -5.84%K -8.49%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-04-11 00:25
Bovada🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -3.04%E -2.34%K -10.13%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -19.95%E -6.33%K -9.28%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-04-11 00:21
betPARX🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV +1.44%E +1.06%K +3.99%G +0.057%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -21.22%E -6.84%K -10.10%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-11 00:25
FanDuel🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -0.055%E -0.041%K -0.161%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -21.22%E -6.84%K -10.10%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-11 00:25
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.11%EV -3.04%E -2.34%K -10.13%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -22.49%E -7.37%K -10.97%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-04-11 00:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV +1.44%E +1.06%K +3.99%G +0.057%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -23.76%E -7.92%K -11.88%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-11 00:24
Bally Bet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV +0.691%E +0.512%K +1.97%G +0.014%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -23.76%E -7.92%K -11.88%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-04-11 00:25
Caesars🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV +4.42%E +3.16%K +11.05%G +0.488%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -25.03%E -8.48%K -12.84%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-04-11 00:24
theScore Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV +1.44%E +1.06%K +3.99%G +0.057%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -27.57%E -9.67%K -14.90%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-04-11 00:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.