The School of College Oddsodds.college
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Oregon St Beavers v Cal Poly Mustangs

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oregon St Beavers (Local)

Prediction 79.83%1.25fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -3.51%
Kelly -21.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.32%80.08%79.53%81.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.171.171.2087.72%85.23%85.11%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit)

Prediction 20.17%4.96fair odd
EV +4.90%
Edge +0.943%
Kelly +1.17%
Growth +0.057%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.11%19.92%20.47%21.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.714.725.2023.26%21.25%21.16%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oregon St Beavers (Local): 79.83%; Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit): 20.17%. For Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.96. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.90%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -8.20%E -7.13%K -54.66%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV +4.90%E +0.943%K +1.17%G +0.057%6.2%2026-04-12 12:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.60%E -5.64%K -38.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +0.868%E +0.174%K +0.217%G +0.002%5.5%2026-04-12 16:54
theScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -9.00%E -7.89%K -64.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +0.868%E +0.174%K +0.217%G +0.002%7.7%2026-04-12 12:45
Bally Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.13%EV -9.00%E -7.89%K -64.27%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.87%EV -1.15%E -0.235%K -0.295%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 16:50
betPARX🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.13%EV -9.00%E -7.89%K -64.27%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.87%EV -1.15%E -0.235%K -0.295%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 16:50
BetRivers🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.13%EV -9.00%E -7.89%K -64.27%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.87%EV -1.15%E -0.235%K -0.295%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 16:54
1xBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.44%EV -7.40%E -6.38%K -46.26%G +0.000%4.77I 20.96%NM 19.56%EV -3.77%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 15:50
Caesars🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.21%E -3.51%K -21.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -4.18%E -0.879%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-12 16:10
Bovada🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.60%E -5.64%K -38.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -4.18%E -0.879%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 14:53
MyBookie.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -6.60%E -5.64%K -38.84%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -5.18%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 14:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.12%EV -5.01%E -4.21%K -26.35%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 20.88%EV -9.02%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 16:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.12%EV -5.01%E -4.21%K -26.35%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 20.88%EV -9.02%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 16:10
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.21%E -3.51%K -21.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.22%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 11:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.21%E -3.51%K -21.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.22%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 11:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.21%E -3.51%K -21.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.22%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 11:15
DraftKings🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -5.01%E -4.21%K -26.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -9.22%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 04:30
BetMGM🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.80%E -4.92%K -32.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -9.22%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 12:39
BetUS🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -5.01%E -4.21%K -26.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -13.25%E -3.08%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 16:18
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.17I 85.47%NM 81.28%5.08I 19.69%NM 18.72%5.2%2026-04-12 19:39