The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Oregon Ducks v USC Trojans

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oregon Ducks (Local)

Prediction 45.64%2.19fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.13%45.62%45.91%47.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.062.082.1450.76%48.58%48.08%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

USC Trojans (Visit)

Prediction 54.36%1.84fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -4.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.96%54.38%54.09%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.721.721.7759.88%58.12%58.14%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oregon Ducks (Local): 45.64%; USC Trojans (Visit): 54.36%. For Oregon Ducks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.14, with an expected value of -2.34%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.13%EV -2.34%E -1.09%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -8.12%E -4.81%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 12:54
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.17%E -1.98%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.04%E -4.11%K -9.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 21:50
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -4.17%E -1.98%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -8.12%E -4.81%K -11.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 12:55
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.17%E -1.98%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.21%E -5.52%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 21:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.17%E -1.98%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.21%E -5.52%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 21:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.17%E -1.98%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.21%E -5.52%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 21:25
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -4.62%E -2.21%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -4.32%E -2.45%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-16 21:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV -4.62%E -2.21%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV -7.04%E -4.11%K -9.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 21:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV -4.62%E -2.21%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV -7.04%E -4.11%K -9.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 21:50
FanDuel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -5.08%E -2.44%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -6.49%E -3.77%K -9.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 18:50
MyBookie.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -5.99%E -2.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -5.41%E -3.11%K -7.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 18:55
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.45%E -3.15%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.41%E -3.11%K -7.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 18:25
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.45%E -3.15%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.41%E -3.11%K -7.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 18:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.45%E -3.15%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.41%E -3.11%K -7.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 18:50
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.73%E -4.36%K -8.73%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.77%E -2.13%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 18:50
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.73%E -4.36%K -8.73%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.04%E -4.11%K -9.91%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 18:40
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -10.10%E -5.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -4.86%E -2.78%K -6.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 18:45
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -10.10%E -5.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -4.86%E -2.78%K -6.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 18:50
Bally Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -10.10%E -5.13%K -10.41%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -4.86%E -2.78%K -6.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.00I 100.00%NM 64.66%1.83I 54.64%NM 35.34%54.6%2026-05-16 19:45