Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oregon Ducks v USC Trojans

Kickoff: 2026-05-15 02:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

42%

58%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oregon Ducks (Local)

Prediction 42.37%2.36fair odd

EV -3.39%

Edge -1.49%

Kelly -2.65%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.39%42.72%42.18%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.052.212.212.2848.78%45.34%45.25%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

USC Trojans (Visit)

Prediction 57.63%1.74fair odd

EV +0.275%

Edge +0.158%

Kelly +0.371%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.09%57.28%57.82%58.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.601.641.621.7462.50%60.95%61.73%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oregon Ducks (Local): 42.37%; USC Trojans (Visit): 57.63%. For USC Trojans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.735. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.740, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.275%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -13.14%E -6.41%K -12.51%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV +0.275%E +0.158%K +0.371%G +0.001%	6.3%	2026-05-15 01:50
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -13.14%E -6.41%K -12.51%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV +0.275%E +0.158%K +0.371%G +0.001%	6.3%	2026-05-15 01:55
Caesars🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.76%E -2.25%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-15 01:54
theScore Bet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.76%E -2.25%K -5.61%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-15 01:00
1xBet🎯	2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -4.24%E -1.88%K -3.37%G +0.000%	1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -4.34%E -2.61%K -6.57%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-05-15 00:45
BetUS🎯	2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%EV -5.94%E -2.67%K -4.87%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%EV -4.91%E -2.98%K -7.56%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-05-15 02:00
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.24I 44.64%NM 42.12%EV -5.09%E -2.27%K -4.10%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.88%EV -6.06%E -3.72%K -9.63%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-14 20:24
BetMGM🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.67%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.64%E -4.10%K -10.71%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-14 19:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.67%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.64%E -4.10%K -10.71%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-14 20:05
DraftKings🎯	2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -5.09%E -2.27%K -4.10%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -6.64%E -4.10%K -10.71%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-14 17:25
FanDuel🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -3.39%E -1.49%K -2.65%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -7.22%E -4.48%K -11.83%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-14 17:40
Bovada🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -4.67%E -2.07%K -3.73%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -7.22%E -4.48%K -11.83%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-14 16:09
Betway🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.22%E -4.48%K -11.83%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-14 22:59
BetRivers🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.79%E -4.87%K -12.99%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-14 18:25
betPARX🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.79%E -4.87%K -12.99%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-14 18:25
Bally Bet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.78%E -3.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.79%E -4.87%K -12.99%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-14 18:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.30I 43.48%NM 30.30%	1.00I 100.00%NM 69.70%	43.5%	2026-05-15 01:59