The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Oregon Ducks v USC Trojans

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 01:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oregon Ducks (Local)

Prediction 46.60%2.15fair odd
EV +2.52%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +2.10%
Growth +0.053%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.86%46.23%46.67%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.022.002.2051.55%49.52%50.00%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

USC Trojans (Visit)

Prediction 53.40%1.87fair odd
EV -3.88%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -4.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.77%53.33%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.741.741.8060.61%57.35%57.47%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oregon Ducks (Local): 46.60%; USC Trojans (Visit): 53.40%. For Oregon Ducks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.52%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +2.52%E +1.14%K +2.10%G +0.053%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -11.89%E -7.20%K -18.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 01:04
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.14%E -1.02%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.68%E -5.08%K -12.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 01:03
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -2.14%E -1.02%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -9.75%E -5.77%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 01:03
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -2.61%E -1.25%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -6.01%E -3.42%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-16 01:04
MyBookie.ag🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -3.54%E -1.71%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -7.08%E -4.07%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 01:03
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.47%E -2.18%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.08%E -4.07%K -9.57%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 01:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.80%E -3.40%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.48%E -3.10%K -7.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 01:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.80%E -3.40%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.48%E -3.10%K -7.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 01:05
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.80%E -3.40%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.48%E -3.10%K -7.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 01:04
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.80%E -3.40%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.62%E -4.40%K -10.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 01:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.80%E -3.40%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.62%E -4.40%K -10.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 01:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.80%E -3.40%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.62%E -4.40%K -10.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 01:04
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.13%E -4.68%K -9.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.88%E -2.15%K -4.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 01:04
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -9.13%E -4.68%K -9.61%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.08%E -4.07%K -9.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 01:05
BetRivers🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -9.60%E -4.95%K -10.21%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -5.48%E -3.10%K -7.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-16 01:05
Bally Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -9.60%E -4.95%K -10.21%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -5.48%E -3.10%K -7.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-16 01:05
betPARX🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -9.60%E -4.95%K -10.21%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -5.48%E -3.10%K -7.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-16 01:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.29%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.71%2.9%2026-05-16 01:04