Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oregon Ducks v Indiana Hoosiers

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oregon Ducks (Local)

Prediction 80.81%1.24fair odd
EV -5.46%
Edge -4.66%
Kelly -32.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.37%80.85%81.17%82.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.161.161.1787.72%86.49%86.21%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Indiana Hoosiers (Visit)

Prediction 19.19%5.21fair odd
EV +3.45%
Edge +0.640%
Kelly +0.786%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 5.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.46%19.15%18.83%20.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.894.905.3922.22%20.44%20.41%18.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oregon Ducks (Local): 80.81%; Indiana Hoosiers (Visit): 19.19%. For Indiana Hoosiers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.21. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.39, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.54%EV -7.88%E -6.91%K -56.29%G +0.000%5.39I 18.55%NM 17.46%EV +3.45%E +0.640%K +0.786%G +0.027%6.3%2026-03-13 20:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.54%EV -7.88%E -6.91%K -56.29%G +0.000%5.39I 18.55%NM 17.46%EV +3.45%E +0.640%K +0.786%G +0.027%6.3%2026-03-13 20:00
BetUS🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -7.88%E -6.91%K -56.29%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -0.195%E -0.038%K -0.047%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-13 20:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.46%E -4.66%K -32.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.03%E -0.807%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-13 17:14
BetMGM🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.26%E -5.40%K -39.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.03%E -0.807%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 13:40
FanDuel🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.26%E -5.40%K -39.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.03%E -0.807%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 12:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.07%E -6.15%K -47.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.03%E -0.807%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-13 22:54
theScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.88%E -6.91%K -56.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -4.03%E -0.807%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-13 05:24
DraftKings🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.46%E -4.66%K -32.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -7.87%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 21:54
Bovada🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -5.46%E -4.66%K -32.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -8.83%E -1.86%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 01:34
1xBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.20%EV -5.46%E -4.66%K -32.09%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 19.80%EV -9.02%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-13 22:34
Fliff🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.48%EV -7.88%E -6.91%K -56.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.52%EV -9.79%E -2.08%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 16:45
BetRivers🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -6.26%E -5.40%K -39.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -11.71%E -2.55%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-13 16:44
Bally Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -6.26%E -5.40%K -39.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -11.71%E -2.55%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-13 16:45
betPARX🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -6.26%E -5.40%K -39.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -11.71%E -2.55%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-13 16:45
Betway🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.46%E -4.66%K -32.09%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.63%E -3.03%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-13 13:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.16I 86.21%NM 81.70%5.18I 19.31%NM 18.30%5.5%2026-03-13 22:00