Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Old Dominion Monarchs v Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Old Dominion Monarchs (Local)

Prediction 16.56%6.04fair odd
EV -0.613%
Edge -0.102%
Kelly -0.123%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.61%16.71%16.67%19.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.505.506.0021.05%18.18%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 83.44%1.20fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -2.77%
Kelly -20.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.37%83.29%83.33%84.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.131.121.1690.09%88.74%89.29%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Old Dominion Monarchs (Local): 16.56%; Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Visit): 83.44%. For Old Dominion Monarchs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.00, with an expected value of -0.613%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -0.613%E -0.102%K -0.123%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.55%E -5.85%K -54.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 13:09
BetMGM🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -0.613%E -0.102%K -0.123%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.55%E -5.85%K -54.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 15:54
Bovada🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -0.613%E -0.102%K -0.123%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.39%E -6.65%K -67.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 14:08
theScore Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -4.75%E -0.827%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -7.39%E -6.65%K -67.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 14:24
888sport🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.90%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.88%E -4.28%K -34.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.90%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.88%E -4.28%K -34.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 13:34
888sport (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.90%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.88%E -4.28%K -34.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 13:34
BetRivers🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -10.55%E -1.95%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -6.55%E -5.85%K -54.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 15:54
Bally Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -10.55%E -1.95%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -6.55%E -5.85%K -54.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 15:54
betPARX🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -10.55%E -1.95%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -6.55%E -5.85%K -54.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 15:54
MyBookie.ag🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -12.21%E -2.30%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.43%EV -5.72%E -5.06%K -43.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 14:28
Betway🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -17.18%E -3.44%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -6.55%E -5.85%K -54.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-04 14:09
1xBet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -21.32%E -4.49%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -3.21%E -2.77%K -20.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 15:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig6.21I 16.10%NM 14.81%1.08I 92.59%NM 85.19%8.7%2026-04-04 15:04