The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish v Virginia Cavaliers

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Local)

Prediction 46.46%2.15fair odd
EV +2.22%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.85%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%46.24%46.95%47.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.032.002.2051.55%49.25%50.00%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Cavaliers (Visit)

Prediction 53.54%1.87fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -4.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.15%53.76%53.05%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.741.731.8059.88%57.56%57.64%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Local): 46.46%; Virginia Cavaliers (Visit): 53.54%. For Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +2.22%E +1.01%K +1.85%G +0.041%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -10.59%E -6.34%K -15.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV +0.825%E +0.380%K +0.705%G +0.006%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -10.59%E -6.34%K -15.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV +0.825%E +0.380%K +0.705%G +0.006%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -10.59%E -6.34%K -15.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:55
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.43%E -1.16%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.45%E -4.94%K -11.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 14:49
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.43%E -1.16%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.45%E -4.94%K -11.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 16:54
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -2.43%E -1.16%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -9.52%E -5.63%K -13.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:53
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.24%E -2.96%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 02:05
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.24%E -2.96%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 06:15
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.38%E -4.27%K -10.11%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 02:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.38%E -4.27%K -10.11%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 02:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.07%E -3.54%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.38%E -4.27%K -10.11%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 02:04
MyBookie.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.93%EV -7.54%E -3.79%K -7.61%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.07%EV -5.78%E -3.28%K -7.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 14:53
FanDuel🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -8.00%E -4.04%K -8.17%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -3.63%E -2.02%K -4.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 13:05
1xBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -8.47%E -4.30%K -8.73%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -4.70%E -2.64%K -6.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 15:35
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -9.40%E -4.82%K -9.89%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -6.85%E -3.93%K -9.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 07:30
BetRivers🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.85%EV -9.86%E -5.08%K -10.49%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.15%EV -4.70%E -2.64%K -6.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 16:44
betPARX🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.85%EV -9.86%E -5.08%K -10.49%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.15%EV -4.70%E -2.64%K -6.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 16:45
Bally Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.85%EV -9.86%E -5.08%K -10.49%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.15%EV -4.70%E -2.64%K -6.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%4.9%2026-04-12 16:25