Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northwestern Wildcats v USC Trojans

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northwestern Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 13.14%7.61fair odd
EV +5.15%
Edge +0.643%
Kelly +0.735%
Growth +0.038%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.70%13.18%13.26%15.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.906.997.008.0016.95%14.31%14.29%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

USC Trojans (Visit)

Prediction 86.86%1.15fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -3.23%
Kelly -32.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.17%86.82%86.74%88.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.081.081.1195.24%92.50%92.59%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Northwestern Wildcats (Local): 13.14%; USC Trojans (Visit): 86.86%. For Northwestern Wildcats (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.61. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +5.15%E +0.643%K +0.735%G +0.038%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.93%E -7.48%K -132.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-13 15:23
theScore Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +5.15%E +0.643%K +0.735%G +0.038%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.93%E -7.48%K -132.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-13 15:39
DraftKings🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -1.42%E -0.190%K -0.219%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.33%E -4.89%K -59.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 14:59
BetMGM🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -1.42%E -0.190%K -0.219%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.19%E -5.74%K -77.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-13 15:35
Fliff🎯7.10I 14.08%NM 12.88%EV -6.68%E -0.941%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 87.12%EV -8.80%E -8.38%K -176.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-13 18:40
FanDuel🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -8.00%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.33%E -4.89%K -59.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-13 19:44
888sport🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -8.00%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -6.19%E -5.74%K -77.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-13 16:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -8.00%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -6.19%E -5.74%K -77.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-13 16:15
888sport (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -8.00%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -6.19%E -5.74%K -77.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-13 16:15
MyBookie.ag🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -8.00%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -6.19%E -5.74%K -77.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-13 15:39
Betway🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -8.00%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.06%E -6.60%K -100.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-13 15:40
BetRivers🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -8.00%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.06%E -6.60%K -100.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-13 18:39
Bally Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -8.00%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.06%E -6.60%K -100.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-13 18:40
betPARX🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -8.00%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.06%E -6.60%K -100.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-13 18:40
1xBet🎯6.30I 15.87%NM 14.86%EV -17.20%E -2.73%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.14%EV -4.46%E -4.05%K -44.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-13 19:44
LowVig.ag🎯6.23I 16.05%NM 15.12%EV -18.12%E -2.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.88%EV -3.59%E -3.23%K -32.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-13 19:54
BetOnline.ag🎯6.23I 16.05%NM 15.12%EV -18.12%E -2.91%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.88%EV -3.59%E -3.23%K -32.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-13 19:54
BetUS🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.83%EV -22.45%E -3.81%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.17%EV -3.59%E -3.23%K -32.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-13 19:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.