Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northwestern St Demons v UL Monroe Warhawks

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

56%

44%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northwestern St Demons (Local)

Prediction 55.76%1.79fair odd

EV -5.77%

Edge -3.41%

Kelly -8.36%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.41%55.76%55.87%56.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.671.681.691.6959.88%59.38%59.17%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UL Monroe Warhawks (Visit)

Prediction 44.24%2.26fair odd

EV -4.88%

Edge -2.27%

Kelly -4.24%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.72%44.24%44.13%44.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.132.142.1547.62%46.95%46.73%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Northwestern St Demons (Local): 55.76%; UL Monroe Warhawks (Visit): 44.24%. For UL Monroe Warhawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -4.88%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.77%E -3.41%K -8.36%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.88%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-04-21 01:00
DraftKings🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -5.77%E -3.41%K -8.36%G +0.000%	2.14I 46.73%NM 44.13%EV -5.32%E -2.49%K -4.67%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-04-20 23:15
BetMGM🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.77%E -3.41%K -8.36%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.09%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-04-21 01:45
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 55.67%EV -6.33%E -3.77%K -9.30%G +0.000%	2.11I 47.39%NM 44.33%EV -6.65%E -3.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-21 17:15
Bovada🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.88%E -4.12%K -10.28%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.88%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-21 00:23

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.