Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Florida Ospreys v Florida St Seminoles

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Florida Ospreys (Local)

Prediction 24.76%4.04fair odd
EV -0.956%
Edge -0.239%
Kelly -0.319%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.81%24.89%25.00%26.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.733.754.0028.57%26.84%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Florida St Seminoles (Visit)

Prediction 75.24%1.33fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -3.50%
Kelly -16.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.38%75.11%75.00%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.251.251.2781.97%79.79%80.00%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Florida Ospreys (Local): 24.76%; Florida St Seminoles (Visit): 75.24%. For North Florida Ospreys (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -0.956%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.956%E -0.239%K -0.319%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-21 17:40
FanDuel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -3.43%E -0.880%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -6.70%E -5.41%K -27.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-21 11:05
theScore Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -3.43%E -0.880%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -8.21%E -6.73%K -37.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 18:00
1xBet🎯3.88I 25.77%NM 24.07%EV -3.93%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.93%EV -7.46%E -6.06%K -32.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 18:05
BetMGM🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.15%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.45%E -3.50%K -16.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 01:30
888sport🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.15%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-20 23:30
888sport (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.15%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-20 23:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.15%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-20 23:35
DraftKings🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -8.38%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.45%E -3.50%K -16.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-20 23:15
Bovada🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -8.38%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -5.20%E -4.13%K -20.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 00:23
MyBookie.ag🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.38%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 16:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.86%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.95%E -4.76%K -23.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 16:09
BetRivers🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -13.34%E -3.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -4.45%E -3.50%K -16.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 16:05
betPARX🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -13.34%E -3.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -4.45%E -3.50%K -16.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 16:05
Bally Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -13.34%E -3.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -4.45%E -3.50%K -16.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 16:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig3.92I 25.51%NM 24.76%1.29I 77.52%NM 75.24%3.0%2026-04-21 20:30