The School of College Oddsodds.college
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North Carolina Tar Heels v Virginia Tech Hokies

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 15:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels (Local)

Prediction 79.40%1.26fair odd
EV -4.72%
Edge -3.94%
Kelly -23.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.32%79.39%79.40%82.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.191.191.2088.50%84.37%84.03%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Tech Hokies (Visit)

Prediction 20.60%4.85fair odd
EV +11.26%
Edge +2.08%
Kelly +2.56%
Growth +0.288%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.30%20.61%20.60%21.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.624.505.4023.26%21.66%22.22%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Carolina Tar Heels (Local): 79.40%; Virginia Tech Hokies (Visit): 20.60%. For Virginia Tech Hokies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.85. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -10.28%E -9.10%K -79.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV +11.26%E +2.08%K +2.56%G +0.288%7.0%2026-05-22 14:59
1xBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -7.11%E -6.07%K -41.80%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +7.14%E +1.37%K +1.70%G +0.121%4.7%2026-05-22 14:30
FanDuel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -7.11%E -6.07%K -41.80%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +0.955%E +0.195%K +0.245%G +0.002%5.9%2026-05-22 15:00
Caesars🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.72%E -3.94%K -23.62%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -2.14%E -0.450%K -0.570%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-22 14:20
Bovada🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -7.11%E -6.07%K -41.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -2.14%E -0.450%K -0.570%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-22 14:59
DraftKings🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -6.31%E -5.35%K -35.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -3.17%E -0.674%K -0.856%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-22 15:00
theScore Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -7.11%E -6.07%K -41.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -5.23%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-22 14:30
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.72%E -3.94%K -23.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.29%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-22 09:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.72%E -3.94%K -23.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.29%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-22 09:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.72%E -3.94%K -23.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.29%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-22 09:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.72%E -3.94%K -23.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.29%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-22 14:30
BetMGM🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -5.52%E -4.64%K -29.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -7.29%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-22 10:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.72%E -3.94%K -23.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -9.35%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-22 14:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.72%E -3.94%K -23.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -9.35%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-22 14:50
BetRivers🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -5.52%E -4.64%K -29.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -11.41%E -2.65%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-22 15:00
betPARX🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -5.52%E -4.64%K -29.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -11.41%E -2.65%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-22 15:00
Bally Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -5.52%E -4.64%K -29.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -11.41%E -2.65%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-22 15:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%4.0%2026-05-22 14:59