Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels v Virginia Cavaliers

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels (Local)

Prediction 68.35%1.46fair odd

EV -4.32%

Edge -3.08%

Kelly -10.79%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.82%68.68%68.25%72.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.301.361.361.4076.92%73.38%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Cavaliers (Visit)

Prediction 31.65%3.16fair odd

EV +6.04%

Edge +1.80%

Kelly +2.57%

Growth +0.155%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.96%31.32%31.75%33.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.802.993.003.3535.71%33.40%33.33%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Carolina Tar Heels (Local): 68.35%; Virginia Cavaliers (Visit): 31.65%. For Virginia Cavaliers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Bovada🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -11.15%E -8.58%K -37.17%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV +6.04%E +1.80%K +2.57%G +0.155%	6.8%	2026-03-06 15:35
theScore Bet🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -9.78%E -7.41%K -30.57%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +2.88%E +0.885%K +1.28%G +0.037%	6.5%	2026-03-06 19:20
DraftKings🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -8.42%E -6.28%K -24.75%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV +1.29%E +0.404%K +0.588%G +0.008%	5.9%	2026-03-06 15:30
LowVig.ag🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.44%EV -7.05%E -5.18%K -19.58%G +0.000%	3.09I 32.36%NM 30.56%EV -2.19%E -0.708%K -1.05%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-06 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.44%EV -7.05%E -5.18%K -19.58%G +0.000%	3.09I 32.36%NM 30.56%EV -2.19%E -0.708%K -1.05%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-06 16:40
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.25%EV -7.73%E -5.73%K -22.09%G +0.000%	3.04I 32.89%NM 30.75%EV -3.77%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-06 17:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.05%E -5.18%K -19.58%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.04%E -1.68%K -2.52%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-06 15:34
888sport🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.05%E -5.18%K -19.58%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.04%E -1.68%K -2.52%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-06 15:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.05%E -5.18%K -19.58%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.04%E -1.68%K -2.52%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-06 15:50
888sport (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.05%E -5.18%K -19.58%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.04%E -1.68%K -2.52%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-06 15:50
BetUS🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.05%E -5.18%K -19.58%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.04%E -1.68%K -2.52%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-06 16:40
BetMGM🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.32%E -3.08%K -10.79%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.20%E -2.83%K -4.32%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-05 22:55
FanDuel🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.32%E -3.08%K -10.79%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.20%E -2.83%K -4.32%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-06 16:54
Betway🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -7.05%E -5.18%K -19.58%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -9.79%E -3.43%K -5.29%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-03-06 15:54
1xBet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.82%EV -4.32%E -3.08%K -10.79%G +0.000%	2.82I 35.46%NM 33.18%EV -10.74%E -3.81%K -5.90%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-06 18:00
BetRivers🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -5.68%E -4.12%K -14.95%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -11.37%E -4.06%K -6.32%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-03-06 16:55
Bally Bet🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -5.68%E -4.12%K -14.95%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -11.37%E -4.06%K -6.32%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-03-06 16:55
betPARX🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -5.68%E -4.12%K -14.95%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -11.37%E -4.06%K -6.32%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-03-06 16:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.21%	3.08I 32.47%NM 30.79%	5.5%	2026-03-06 20:10