Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels v USC Trojans

Kickoff: 2026-06-07 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

64%

36%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels (Local)

Prediction 63.66%1.57fair odd

EV -4.51%

Edge -3.01%

Kelly -9.02%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

63.41%63.66%63.66%64.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.471.481.481.5068.03%67.48%67.57%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

USC Trojans (Visit)

Prediction 36.34%2.75fair odd

EV -3.33%

Edge -1.25%

Kelly -2.01%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.85%36.34%36.34%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.602.622.622.6638.46%38.14%38.17%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Carolina Tar Heels (Local): 63.66%; USC Trojans (Visit): 36.34%. For USC Trojans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.66, with an expected value of -3.33%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.51%E -3.01%K -9.02%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-06 23:00
1xBet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.10%EV -5.15%E -3.46%K -10.51%G +0.000%	2.66I 37.59%NM 35.90%EV -3.33%E -1.25%K -2.01%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-06-06 22:59
FanDuel🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.90%EV -5.79%E -3.91%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.10%EV -4.79%E -1.83%K -2.95%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-06 22:59
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -6.42%E -4.37%K -13.66%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -4.42%E -1.68%K -2.71%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-06-06 22:58
Bovada🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.42%E -4.37%K -13.66%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-06-06 22:58

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.