Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels v Pittsburgh Panthers

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

76%

24%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels (Local)

Prediction 76.48%1.31fair odd

EV -3.64%

Edge -2.89%

Kelly -13.99%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

73.68%76.47%76.17%78.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.201.221.221.2683.33%81.65%81.97%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 23.52%4.25fair odd

EV +3.49%

Edge +0.794%

Kelly +1.03%

Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.43%23.53%23.83%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.503.994.004.4028.57%25.05%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Carolina Tar Heels (Local): 76.48%; Pittsburgh Panthers (Visit): 23.52%. For Pittsburgh Panthers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.25. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -8.23%E -6.85%K -41.13%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +3.49%E +0.794%K +1.03%G +0.036%	6.1%	2026-05-09 15:59
FanDuel🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -8.23%E -6.85%K -41.13%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +3.49%E +0.794%K +1.03%G +0.036%	6.1%	2026-05-09 15:59
DraftKings🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -7.46%E -6.17%K -35.53%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -0.033%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-09 16:00
1xBet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -8.23%E -6.85%K -41.13%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -0.033%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-09 15:48
Bovada🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -7.46%E -6.17%K -35.53%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -1.21%E -0.288%K -0.378%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-09 15:45
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -7.46%E -6.17%K -35.53%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -3.56%E -0.869%K -1.15%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-09 15:59
888sport🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.70%E -5.49%K -30.44%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.91%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-09 15:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.70%E -5.49%K -30.44%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.91%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-09 15:59
888sport (SE)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.70%E -5.49%K -30.44%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.91%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-09 15:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.70%E -5.49%K -30.44%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.91%E -1.48%K -1.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-09 15:59
Caesars🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.64%E -2.89%K -13.99%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-09 15:59
BetRivers🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.70%E -5.49%K -30.44%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-09 16:00
theScore Bet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.70%E -5.49%K -30.44%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-09 15:59
Bally Bet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.70%E -5.49%K -30.44%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-09 15:59
betPARX🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.70%E -5.49%K -30.44%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -8.27%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-09 16:00
LowVig.ag🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.00%EV -3.64%E -2.89%K -13.99%G +0.000%	3.78I 26.46%NM 25.00%EV -11.09%E -2.93%K -3.99%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-09 16:00
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.00%EV -3.64%E -2.89%K -13.99%G +0.000%	3.78I 26.46%NM 25.00%EV -11.09%E -2.93%K -3.99%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-09 15:59
BetUS🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -4.40%E -3.52%K -17.61%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -12.97%E -3.51%K -4.80%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-09 15:59
Betway🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -4.40%E -3.52%K -17.61%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -17.67%E -5.05%K -7.07%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-05-09 15:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.