The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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North Carolina Tar Heels v Louisville Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels (Local)

Prediction 63.69%1.57fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -2.98%
Kelly -8.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.81%63.64%63.73%64.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.481.481.5069.93%67.73%67.57%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louisville Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 36.31%2.75fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.77%36.36%36.27%37.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.582.602.6540.00%38.72%38.46%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Carolina Tar Heels (Local): 63.69%; Louisville Cardinals (Visit): 36.31%. For Louisville Cardinals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -3.78%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.78%E -1.43%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-21 08:54
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-21 02:39
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 02:25
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 02:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 12:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 11:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 11:45
BetUS🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.41%E -2.90%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-21 12:44
1xBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.82%EV -7.77%E -3.06%K -5.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-21 15:09
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 14:59
FanDuel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.23%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.57%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.77%EV -4.14%E -1.57%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-21 07:43
Bovada🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 03:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.86%EV -7.01%E -4.80%K -15.25%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.14%EV -6.32%E -2.45%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 15:39
Fliff🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.61%EV -8.92%E -6.24%K -20.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.39%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-21 02:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.47I 68.03%NM 64.58%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%5.3%2026-03-21 17:44