The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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North Carolina Tar Heels v Louisville Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels (Local)

Prediction 66.39%1.51fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -2.58%
Kelly -8.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.79%66.48%66.35%68.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.411.421.4572.46%70.83%70.67%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louisville Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 33.61%2.98fair odd
EV -0.847%
Edge -0.287%
Kelly -0.434%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.87%33.52%33.65%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.802.772.9537.74%35.75%36.04%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Carolina Tar Heels (Local): 66.39%; Louisville Cardinals (Visit): 33.61%. For Louisville Cardinals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.95, with an expected value of -0.847%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.89%EV -3.74%E -2.58%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.11%EV -9.92%E -3.70%K -5.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 18:10
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -4.40%E -3.06%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.93%E -4.12%K -6.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 18:14
Caesars🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.06%E -3.54%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.21%E -1.48%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-20 08:58
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.06%E -3.54%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -7.57%E -2.75%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 18:10
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.06%E -3.54%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -7.57%E -2.75%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 23:40
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.73%E -4.03%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.89%E -2.10%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-20 05:45
theScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.73%E -4.03%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.89%E -2.10%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-20 09:54
MyBookie.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.73%E -4.03%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.57%E -2.75%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 18:15
Bovada🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -6.39%E -4.53%K -15.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -5.89%E -2.10%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 15:49
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.06%E -5.04%K -17.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.53%E -0.872%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-20 17:59
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.06%E -5.04%K -17.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.57%E -2.75%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-20 23:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.06%E -5.04%K -17.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.57%E -2.75%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-20 23:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.06%E -5.04%K -17.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.57%E -2.75%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-20 23:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -8.38%E -6.07%K -22.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -0.847%E -0.287%K -0.434%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-20 22:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -8.38%E -6.07%K -22.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -0.847%E -0.287%K -0.434%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-20 22:20
BetUS🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.53%EV -8.38%E -6.07%K -22.06%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.47%EV -3.54%E -1.23%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 22:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.44I 69.44%NM 65.96%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.04%5.3%2026-03-20 23:50