Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels v High Point Panthers

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels (Local)

Prediction 76.89%1.30fair odd
EV -3.88%
Edge -3.11%
Kelly -15.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.17%76.94%76.92%78.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.221.221.2583.33%82.18%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

High Point Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 23.11%4.33fair odd
EV +1.67%
Edge +0.380%
Kelly +0.492%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.43%23.06%23.08%23.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.064.004.4025.64%24.61%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Carolina Tar Heels (Local): 76.89%; High Point Panthers (Visit): 23.11%. For High Point Panthers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.33. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -7.73%E -6.44%K -38.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +1.67%E +0.380%K +0.492%G +0.008%6.1%2026-04-21 16:05
1xBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -7.73%E -6.44%K -38.65%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 21.86%EV -0.869%E -0.202%K -0.264%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 19:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -6.96%E -5.75%K -33.14%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -1.79%E -0.422%K -0.552%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 16:05
DraftKings🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.19%E -5.07%K -28.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 23:15
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.19%E -5.07%K -28.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 00:23
BetMGM🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.19%E -5.07%K -28.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 01:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.19%E -5.07%K -28.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 13:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.19%E -5.07%K -28.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 13:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.96%E -5.75%K -33.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 16:10
Caesars🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.88%E -3.11%K -15.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-21 13:34
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.19%E -5.07%K -28.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 00:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.19%E -5.07%K -28.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 00:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.19%E -5.07%K -28.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 00:35
theScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.78%EV -6.96%E -5.75%K -33.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 17:35
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.73%E -6.44%K -38.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-21 12:50
BetUS🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -6.19%E -5.07%K -28.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -8.73%E -2.21%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 13:45
BetRivers🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.19%E -5.07%K -28.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -9.88%E -2.53%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 18:24
Bally Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.19%E -5.07%K -28.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -9.88%E -2.53%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 18:25
betPARX🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.19%E -5.07%K -28.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -9.88%E -2.53%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.25I 80.00%NM 77.95%4.42I 22.62%NM 22.05%2.6%2026-04-21 21:00