Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels v Boston College Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

77%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels (Local)

Prediction 77.11%1.30fair odd

EV -3.61%

Edge -2.89%

Kelly -14.43%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

75.64%77.34%76.92%80.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.161.211.211.2586.21%82.72%82.64%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boston College Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 22.89%4.37fair odd

EV +9.17%

Edge +1.92%

Kelly +2.43%

Growth +0.223%

assuming max odds 4.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.56%22.66%23.08%24.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.854.214.104.7725.97%23.77%24.39%20.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Carolina Tar Heels (Local): 77.11%; Boston College Eagles (Visit): 22.89%. For Boston College Eagles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.37. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 80.44%EV -10.55%E -9.09%K -65.92%G +0.000%	4.77I 20.96%NM 19.56%EV +9.17%E +1.92%K +2.43%G +0.223%	7.2%	2026-04-04 15:55
888sport🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.46%E -6.22%K -37.32%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +2.99%E +0.664%K +0.854%G +0.026%	5.6%	2026-04-04 15:34
888sport (SE)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.46%E -6.22%K -37.32%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +2.99%E +0.664%K +0.854%G +0.026%	5.6%	2026-04-04 15:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.46%E -6.22%K -37.32%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +2.99%E +0.664%K +0.854%G +0.026%	5.6%	2026-04-04 15:34
FanDuel🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -8.23%E -6.92%K -43.34%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV +2.99%E +0.664%K +0.854%G +0.026%	6.3%	2026-04-04 15:00
BetRivers🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -9.01%E -7.63%K -50.03%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -1.59%E -0.370%K -0.482%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-04 14:40
betPARX🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -9.01%E -7.63%K -50.03%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -1.59%E -0.370%K -0.482%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-04 14:40
Bally Bet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -9.01%E -7.63%K -50.03%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -1.59%E -0.370%K -0.482%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-04 14:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -6.69%E -5.53%K -31.87%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -2.73%E -0.643%K -0.841%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-04 15:54
BetMGM🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.92%E -4.85%K -26.91%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -6.17%E -1.50%K -1.99%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-04 01:15
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.69%E -5.53%K -31.87%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -6.17%E -1.50%K -1.99%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-04 14:59
Caesars🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.61%E -2.89%K -14.43%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.46%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-04-04 14:19
DraftKings🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.38%E -3.53%K -18.25%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.46%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-04-04 00:50
Bovada🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.92%E -4.85%K -26.91%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.46%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-04 04:35
theScore Bet🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 76.78%EV -6.69%E -5.53%K -31.87%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -8.46%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-04 14:55
Betway🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.46%E -6.22%K -37.32%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.46%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-04-04 15:49
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.25%EV -4.38%E -3.53%K -18.25%G +0.000%	3.98I 25.13%NM 23.75%EV -8.91%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-04 13:24
LowVig.ag🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.25%EV -4.38%E -3.53%K -18.25%G +0.000%	3.98I 25.13%NM 23.75%EV -8.91%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-04 13:25
BetUS🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -4.38%E -3.53%K -18.25%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -11.89%E -3.09%K -4.17%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-04-04 13:34

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.47%	4.41I 22.68%NM 21.53%	5.3%	2026-04-04 15:30