The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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New Mexico Lobos v San Diego St Aztecs

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Mexico Lobos (Local)

Prediction 52.23%1.91fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -5.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.67%52.28%52.19%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.801.801.8357.47%55.70%55.56%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego St Aztecs (Visit)

Prediction 47.77%2.09fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.91%47.72%47.81%49.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.951.952.0553.19%51.28%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Mexico Lobos (Local): 52.23%; San Diego St Aztecs (Visit): 47.77%. For San Diego St Aztecs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.05, with an expected value of -2.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -4.42%E -2.42%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -10.19%E -5.42%K -11.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 15:35
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -4.42%E -2.42%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -10.19%E -5.42%K -11.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 15:35
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -4.42%E -2.42%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -10.19%E -5.42%K -11.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 15:35
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -4.94%E -2.72%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -8.28%E -4.31%K -9.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 17:00
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.99%E -3.33%K -7.49%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.41%E -2.73%K -5.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 16:44
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.99%E -3.33%K -7.49%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.85%E -3.51%K -7.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 16:44
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.99%E -3.33%K -7.49%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.76%E -4.58%K -9.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-11 19:19
MyBookie.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.14%EV -6.51%E -3.64%K -8.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.86%EV -6.85%E -3.51%K -7.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 16:49
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.56%E -4.27%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.46%E -2.23%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 16:44
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.12%E -5.24%K -12.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.07%E -1.01%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 14:09
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.12%E -5.24%K -12.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.07%E -1.01%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 16:51
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.26%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.74%1.1%2026-04-11 19:15