Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Mexico Lobos v Air Force Falcons

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

52%

48%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Mexico Lobos (Local)

Prediction 52.48%1.91fair odd

EV +4.43%

Edge +2.23%

Kelly +4.47%

Growth +0.198%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.07%52.48%52.38%53.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.771.831.801.9956.50%54.74%55.56%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Air Force Falcons (Visit)

Prediction 47.52%2.10fair odd

EV -4.95%

Edge -2.48%

Kelly -4.95%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.95%47.52%47.62%52.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.771.941.962.0056.50%51.68%50.89%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Mexico Lobos (Local): 52.48%; Air Force Falcons (Visit): 47.52%. For New Mexico Lobos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.91. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.99, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.99I 50.25%NM 47.07%EV +4.43%E +2.23%K +4.47%G +0.198%	1.77I 56.50%NM 52.93%EV -15.88%E -8.97%K -20.63%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-02 16:00
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -3.97%E -2.17%K -4.78%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.23%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-02 16:24
BetMGM🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.54%E -3.08%K -6.93%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-02 14:55
theScore Bet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.54%E -3.08%K -6.93%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-02 16:19
DraftKings🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.12%E -4.02%K -9.24%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-02 15:50
Bovada🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.12%E -4.02%K -9.24%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-02 15:51

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%	7.2%	2026-05-02 18:54