Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

NC State Wolfpack v Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Kickoff: 2026-04-02 22:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

NC State Wolfpack (Local)

Prediction 58.71%1.70fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -5.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.96%58.72%58.61%60.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.611.611.6463.69%62.21%62.11%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Visit)

Prediction 41.29%2.42fair odd
EV -0.899%
Edge -0.375%
Kelly -0.642%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.85%41.28%41.39%43.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.252.242.4046.08%44.54%44.64%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NC State Wolfpack (Local): 58.71%; Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Visit): 41.29%. For Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -0.899%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -3.72%E -2.27%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -10.40%E -4.79%K -8.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-02 21:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.89%E -3.02%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.09%E -3.15%K -5.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-02 21:59
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -4.89%E -3.02%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -7.51%E -3.35%K -6.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-02 21:59
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.89%E -3.02%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -9.16%E -4.16%K -7.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-02 21:58
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -4.89%E -3.02%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -9.98%E -4.58%K -8.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-02 21:59
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -4.89%E -3.02%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -9.98%E -4.58%K -8.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-02 22:00
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -4.89%E -3.02%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -9.98%E -4.58%K -8.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-02 22:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.48%E -3.40%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -5.85%E -2.57%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-02 21:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.48%E -3.40%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -5.85%E -2.57%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-02 22:00
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.48%E -3.40%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -5.85%E -2.57%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-02 21:59
MyBookie.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.33%EV -6.07%E -3.79%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.67%EV -7.51%E -3.35%K -6.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-02 21:59
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -6.65%E -4.19%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -0.899%E -0.375%K -0.642%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-02 21:59
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.05%EV -6.65%E -4.19%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%EV -9.16%E -4.16%K -7.63%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-02 22:00
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.83%E -4.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.96%E -1.26%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-02 21:59
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.83%E -4.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.09%E -3.15%K -5.67%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-02 21:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%3.8%2026-04-02 22:00