The School of College Oddsodds.college
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NC State Wolfpack v North Carolina Tar Heels

Kickoff: 2026-05-15 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

NC State Wolfpack (Local)

Prediction 33.14%3.02fair odd
EV +2.74%
Edge +0.884%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.34%33.36%33.14%36.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.582.792.813.1038.76%35.81%35.59%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Carolina Tar Heels (Visit)

Prediction 66.86%1.50fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.709%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.70%66.64%66.86%69.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.411.401.4874.07%70.87%71.43%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NC State Wolfpack (Local): 33.14%; North Carolina Tar Heels (Visit): 66.86%. For NC State Wolfpack (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV +2.74%E +0.884%K +1.30%G +0.036%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -9.74%E -7.22%K -27.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-15 14:00
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.89%E -1.34%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.40%E -4.57%K -16.00%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-15 04:08
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -3.89%E -1.34%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -7.74%E -5.61%K -20.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-15 05:43
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -5.55%E -1.95%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -7.74%E -5.61%K -20.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-15 17:00
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -5.55%E -1.95%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -7.74%E -5.61%K -20.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-15 17:00
betPARX🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -5.55%E -1.95%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -7.74%E -5.61%K -20.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-15 17:00
Bally Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -5.55%E -1.95%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -7.74%E -5.61%K -20.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-15 17:00
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -5.55%E -1.95%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -9.07%E -6.67%K -25.20%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-15 21:14
1xBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -6.54%E -2.32%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -3.72%E -2.59%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-15 16:35
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.20%E -2.57%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.06%E -3.56%K -12.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-15 21:00
MyBookie.ag🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 33.89%EV -8.20%E -2.96%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.11%EV -5.06%E -3.56%K -12.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-15 22:53
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.86%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.40%E -4.57%K -16.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-15 06:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.86%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.40%E -4.57%K -16.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-15 06:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.86%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.40%E -4.57%K -16.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-15 06:15
Caesars🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -10.52%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -1.05%E -0.709%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-15 16:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -13.83%E -5.32%K -8.64%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -1.05%E -0.709%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-15 16:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -13.83%E -5.32%K -8.64%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -1.05%E -0.709%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-15 16:05
BetUS🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.30%EV -14.49%E -5.62%K -9.17%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.70%EV -1.72%E -1.17%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-15 17:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.00I 50.00%NM 37.11%1.18I 84.75%NM 62.89%34.7%2026-05-15 21:25