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NC State Wolfpack v North Carolina Tar Heels
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
NC State Wolfpack (Local)
assuming max odds 2.90
North Carolina Tar Heels (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NC State Wolfpack (Local): 34.36%; North Carolina Tar Heels (Visit): 65.64%. For NC State Wolfpack (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -0.343%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -0.343%E -0.118%K -0.181%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -8.11%E -5.79%K -20.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-16 15:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -3.09%E -1.10%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -5.48%E -3.81%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-16 17:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.78%E -1.35%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.83%E -3.33%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.78%E -1.35%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.80%E -4.79%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-16 04:35 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.78%E -1.35%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.80%E -4.79%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -5.50%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.14%E -4.29%K -14.28%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 15:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -5.50%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.80%E -4.79%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-16 12:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.50%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.11%E -5.79%K -20.28%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-16 15:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.50%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.11%E -5.79%K -20.28%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-16 15:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.50%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.11%E -5.79%K -20.28%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-16 15:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.50%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.11%E -5.79%K -20.28%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.65%E -4.10%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.55%E -1.03%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -12.37%E -4.85%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -2.86%E -1.93%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV -13.06%E -5.16%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -1.55%E -1.03%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV -13.06%E -5.16%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -1.55%E -1.03%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59% | 13.3% | 2026-05-16 17:45 |