Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Missouri Tigers v UIC Flames

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Missouri Tigers (Local)

Prediction 75.74%1.32fair odd
EV -4.57%
Edge -3.62%
Kelly -17.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.02%75.96%75.47%78.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.251.2683.33%80.65%80.00%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UIC Flames (Visit)

Prediction 24.26%4.12fair odd
EV +6.74%
Edge +1.53%
Kelly +1.98%
Growth +0.134%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.43%24.04%24.53%25.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.593.793.754.4027.86%26.41%26.67%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Missouri Tigers (Local): 75.74%; UIC Flames (Visit): 24.26%. For UIC Flames (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.12. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -9.11%E -7.59%K -45.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +6.74%E +1.53%K +1.98%G +0.134%6.1%2026-03-05 23:10
theScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.78%EV -8.35%E -6.90%K -39.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -2.97%E -0.741%K -0.989%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-05 23:10
FanDuel🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.32%E -4.26%K -21.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.60%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-05 23:15
BetMGM🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.32%E -4.26%K -21.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.82%E -2.06%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-05 16:13
MyBookie.ag🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -6.08%E -4.90%K -25.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -7.82%E -2.06%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 23:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -6.08%E -4.90%K -25.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -9.03%E -2.41%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-05 23:10
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.60%E -6.23%K -34.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -9.03%E -2.41%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-05 23:10
Bovada🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -4.57%E -3.62%K -17.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -10.24%E -2.77%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-05 23:16
betPARX🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.32%E -4.26%K -21.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.67%E -3.52%K -4.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-05 22:15
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.32%E -4.26%K -21.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.67%E -3.52%K -4.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-05 22:15
Bally Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.32%E -4.26%K -21.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.67%E -3.52%K -4.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-05 22:15
1xBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.02%EV -4.57%E -3.62%K -17.56%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 25.98%EV -12.91%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-05 23:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.00I 100.00%NM 79.51%3.88I 25.77%NM 20.49%25.8%2026-03-05 23:50