Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Missouri St Bears v Liberty Flames

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 22:50 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

40%

60%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Missouri St Bears (Local)

Prediction 40.17%2.49fair odd

EV +1.63%

Edge +0.645%

Kelly +1.07%

Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 2.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.22%39.87%40.38%41.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.302.392.352.5343.48%41.92%42.55%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Liberty Flames (Visit)

Prediction 59.83%1.67fair odd

EV -3.08%

Edge -1.90%

Kelly -4.96%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.67%60.13%59.62%62.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.551.541.6266.67%64.33%64.94%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Missouri St Bears (Local): 40.17%; Liberty Flames (Visit): 59.83%. For Missouri St Bears (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.63%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV +1.63%E +0.645%K +1.07%G +0.017%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -10.26%E -6.84%K -20.51%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-23 21:59
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV +1.63%E +0.645%K +1.07%G +0.017%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -10.26%E -6.84%K -20.51%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-23 21:59
BetUS🎯	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -2.38%E -0.981%K -1.67%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -7.86%E -5.11%K -14.56%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-23 22:10
FanDuel🎯	2.42I 41.32%NM 38.89%EV -2.79%E -1.15%K -1.96%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.11%EV -7.86%E -5.11%K -14.56%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-23 22:29
theScore Bet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -5.60%E -2.38%K -4.15%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.87%E -3.06%K -8.26%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-23 22:30
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.31I 43.29%NM 40.00%EV -7.20%E -3.12%K -5.50%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.00%EV -7.86%E -5.11%K -14.56%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-23 22:38
Caesars🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.61%E -3.31%K -5.85%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.08%E -1.90%K -4.96%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-05-23 21:30
DraftKings🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.61%E -3.31%K -5.85%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.27%E -2.67%K -7.12%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-23 20:59
Betway🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.61%E -3.31%K -5.85%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.67%E -4.27%K -11.91%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-23 22:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.