Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mississippi St Bulldogs v Vanderbilt Commodores

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mississippi St Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 65.31%1.53fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -6.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.61%65.38%65.06%67.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.431.431.4871.43%69.83%69.93%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vanderbilt Commodores (Visit)

Prediction 34.69%2.88fair odd
EV +2.33%
Edge +0.790%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.49%34.62%34.94%36.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.702.702.9539.22%37.04%37.04%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mississippi St Bulldogs (Local): 65.31%; Vanderbilt Commodores (Visit): 34.69%. For Vanderbilt Commodores (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -7.26%E -5.11%K -17.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV +2.33%E +0.790%K +1.20%G +0.028%4.3%2026-03-20 20:09
BetUS🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -8.56%E -6.12%K -21.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -2.87%E -1.03%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 18:20
MyBookie.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.19%EV -7.91%E -5.61%K -19.30%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.81%EV -4.26%E -1.54%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 23:43
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.60%E -4.62%K -15.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 18:20
BetRivers🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -7.91%E -5.61%K -19.30%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 23:20
betPARX🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -7.91%E -5.61%K -19.30%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 23:20
Bally Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -7.91%E -5.61%K -19.30%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 23:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.71%EV -6.60%E -4.62%K -15.36%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.29%EV -4.95%E -1.81%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-20 22:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.71%EV -6.60%E -4.62%K -15.36%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.29%EV -4.95%E -1.81%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-20 22:20
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.30%E -3.65%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 20:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 22:55
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.60%E -4.62%K -15.36%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 18:24
FanDuel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.05%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.95%EV -7.03%E -2.62%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 22:54
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.60%E -4.62%K -15.36%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -8.08%E -3.05%K -4.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-20 23:00
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.12%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 22:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.12%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 22:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.95%E -4.13%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.12%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 22:44
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.34%E -2.26%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 09:54
1xBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.61%EV -3.99%E -2.72%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.39%EV -10.85%E -4.22%K -6.91%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 23:10
Fliff🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -6.60%E -4.62%K -15.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -11.54%E -4.53%K -7.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-20 22:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.44I 69.44%NM 65.80%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.20%5.5%2026-03-20 22:55