Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota Golden Gophers v Michigan Wolverines

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

62%

38%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota Golden Gophers (Local)

Prediction 61.84%1.62fair odd

EV -1.05%

Edge -0.657%

Kelly -1.75%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.97%61.92%61.65%65.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.431.511.521.6069.93%66.19%66.01%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michigan Wolverines (Visit)

Prediction 38.16%2.62fair odd

EV +3.02%

Edge +1.12%

Kelly +1.78%

Growth +0.054%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.78%38.08%38.35%41.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.302.492.482.7043.48%40.11%40.40%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Minnesota Golden Gophers (Local): 61.84%; Michigan Wolverines (Visit): 38.16%. For Michigan Wolverines (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.62. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -10.95%E -7.60%K -24.88%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV +3.02%E +1.12%K +1.78%G +0.054%	6.5%	2026-05-10 05:44
BetRivers🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -11.56%E -8.09%K -26.89%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV +1.12%E +0.421%K +0.677%G +0.008%	7.7%	2026-05-10 16:40
Bally Bet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -11.56%E -8.09%K -26.89%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV +1.12%E +0.421%K +0.677%G +0.008%	7.7%	2026-05-10 17:14
betPARX🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -11.56%E -8.09%K -26.89%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV +1.12%E +0.421%K +0.677%G +0.008%	7.7%	2026-05-10 17:14
1xBet🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -8.47%E -5.72%K -17.65%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 36.82%EV -3.08%E -1.21%K -2.00%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-10 17:39
Betway🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -8.47%E -5.72%K -17.65%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -4.61%E -1.84%K -3.07%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-10 15:34
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.41%EV -7.24%E -4.82%K -14.47%G +0.000%	2.49I 40.16%NM 37.59%EV -4.99%E -2.00%K -3.35%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-10 17:43
LowVig.ag🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -5.38%E -3.52%K -10.15%G +0.000%	2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -6.13%E -2.49%K -4.20%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-10 16:05
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -5.38%E -3.52%K -10.15%G +0.000%	2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -6.13%E -2.49%K -4.20%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-10 16:04
BetUS🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.38%E -3.52%K -10.15%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.51%E -2.66%K -4.49%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-10 16:10
Caesars🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -1.67%E -1.05%K -2.83%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -8.42%E -3.51%K -6.02%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-05-10 16:05
theScore Bet🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -1.67%E -1.05%K -2.83%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -10.33%E -4.40%K -7.65%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-10 15:29
DraftKings🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -1.05%E -0.657%K -1.75%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -12.24%E -5.32%K -9.41%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-10 16:54
Bovada🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -1.67%E -1.05%K -2.83%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -12.24%E -5.32%K -9.41%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-10 16:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%	9.0%	2026-05-10 17:29