Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota Golden Gophers v Michigan Wolverines

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

57%

43%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota Golden Gophers (Local)

Prediction 57.00%1.75fair odd

EV -2.53%

Edge -1.48%

Kelly -3.56%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.12%57.22%56.85%60.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.541.631.661.7164.94%61.27%60.24%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michigan Wolverines (Visit)

Prediction 43.00%2.33fair odd

EV +1.05%

Edge +0.445%

Kelly +0.775%

Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.59%42.78%43.15%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.222.202.3547.62%45.06%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Minnesota Golden Gophers (Local): 57.00%; Michigan Wolverines (Visit): 43.00%. For Michigan Wolverines (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetRivers🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -12.22%E -7.93%K -22.63%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV +1.05%E +0.445%K +0.775%G +0.008%	7.5%	2026-05-08 21:19
betPARX🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -12.22%E -7.93%K -22.63%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV +1.05%E +0.445%K +0.775%G +0.008%	7.5%	2026-05-08 21:19
Bally Bet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -12.22%E -7.93%K -22.63%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV +1.05%E +0.445%K +0.775%G +0.008%	7.5%	2026-05-08 21:19
FanDuel🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -8.80%E -5.50%K -14.66%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -1.10%E -0.480%K -0.849%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-08 21:24
1xBet🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 58.81%EV -9.37%E -5.89%K -15.88%G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05%NM 41.19%EV -2.39%E -1.05%K -1.88%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-08 21:54
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.33%EV -8.80%E -5.50%K -14.66%G +0.000%	2.24I 44.64%NM 41.67%EV -3.68%E -1.64%K -2.97%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-08 21:28
Caesars🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.81%E -2.88%K -7.18%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.40%E -2.46%K -4.50%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-08 17:18
DraftKings🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.95%E -3.60%K -9.15%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.40%E -2.46%K -4.50%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-08 16:39
BetUS🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.67%E -2.17%K -5.32%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.55%E -3.51%K -6.57%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-05-08 17:04
BetMGM🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.81%E -2.88%K -7.18%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.55%E -3.51%K -6.57%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-08 17:19
Bovada🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.81%E -2.88%K -7.18%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.55%E -3.51%K -6.57%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-08 16:44
LowVig.ag🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -3.67%E -2.17%K -5.32%G +0.000%	2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -8.41%E -3.95%K -7.44%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-08 17:04
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -3.67%E -2.17%K -5.32%G +0.000%	2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -8.41%E -3.95%K -7.44%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-08 17:04
theScore Bet🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.53%E -1.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.70%E -4.62%K -8.82%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-08 21:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%	2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%	5.2%	2026-05-08 22:49