Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michigan St Spartans v Michigan Wolverines

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

38%

62%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michigan St Spartans (Local)

Prediction 37.58%2.66fair odd

EV -3.05%

Edge -1.18%

Kelly -1.93%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.61%37.53%37.58%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.432.492.502.5841.15%40.15%40.00%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michigan Wolverines (Visit)

Prediction 62.42%1.60fair odd

EV -4.49%

Edge -2.94%

Kelly -8.48%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.83%62.47%62.42%63.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.481.501.501.5367.57%66.46%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michigan St Spartans (Local): 37.58%; Michigan Wolverines (Visit): 62.42%. For Michigan St Spartans (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.58, with an expected value of -3.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	2.58I 38.76%NM 36.61%EV -3.05%E -1.18%K -1.93%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.39%EV -6.99%E -4.69%K -14.27%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-04-12 16:45
Caesars🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.18%E -1.64%K -2.69%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.49%E -2.94%K -8.48%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-04-12 14:30
theScore Bet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.06%E -2.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.49%E -2.94%K -8.48%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-04-12 06:15
DraftKings🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.06%E -2.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.74%E -3.80%K -11.26%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-12 01:50
LowVig.ag🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.06%E -2.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.74%E -3.80%K -11.26%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-12 12:20
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.06%E -2.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.74%E -3.80%K -11.26%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-12 12:19
BetMGM🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.06%E -2.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.37%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-12 02:10
Bovada🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.06%E -2.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.37%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-12 02:55
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.06%E -2.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.99%E -4.69%K -14.27%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-12 12:54
Betway🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.06%E -2.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.62%E -5.15%K -15.87%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-12 14:40
BetUS🎯	2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -6.81%E -2.74%K -4.60%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%EV -5.74%E -3.80%K -11.26%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-04-12 12:29
1xBet🎯	2.46I 40.65%NM 38.04%EV -7.56%E -3.07%K -5.18%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 61.96%EV -5.74%E -3.80%K -11.26%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-12 15:20
BetRivers🎯	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.17%EV -8.69%E -3.57%K -6.07%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.83%EV -6.37%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-12 14:35
Bally Bet🎯	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.17%EV -8.69%E -3.57%K -6.07%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.83%EV -6.37%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-12 14:35
betPARX🎯	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.17%EV -8.69%E -3.57%K -6.07%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.83%EV -6.37%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-12 14:34

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.59I 38.61%NM 36.67%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.33%	5.3%	2026-04-12 16:45