Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michigan St Spartans v James Madison Dukes

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michigan St Spartans (Local)

Prediction 62.24%1.61fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -4.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.95%62.30%62.50%64.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.501.501.5769.93%66.84%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

James Madison Dukes (Visit)

Prediction 37.76%2.65fair odd
EV +0.064%
Edge +0.024%
Kelly +0.039%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.05%37.70%37.50%40.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.502.502.6542.55%39.96%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michigan St Spartans (Local): 62.24%; James Madison Dukes (Visit): 37.76%. For James Madison Dukes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.648. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.650, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.064%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -11.00%E -7.69%K -25.57%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV +0.064%E +0.024%K +0.039%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 18:35
Bally Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -11.00%E -7.69%K -25.57%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV +0.064%E +0.024%K +0.039%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 18:34
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -11.00%E -7.69%K -25.57%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV +0.064%E +0.024%K +0.039%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 18:34
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.90%EV -7.88%E -5.33%K -16.43%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.10%EV -1.07%E -0.408%K -0.660%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-01 18:49
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.77%E -3.12%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.60%E -2.24%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-01 18:50
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.60%E -2.24%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 18:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.60%E -2.24%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 18:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.60%E -2.24%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 18:39
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.88%E -5.33%K -16.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -5.60%E -2.24%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-01 18:49
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -4.15%E -2.70%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -9.38%E -3.91%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 18:35
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.30%EV -7.26%E -4.87%K -14.82%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 38.70%EV -10.89%E -4.61%K -8.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-01 18:49
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -2.28%E -1.45%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -11.26%E -4.79%K -8.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 18:29
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -2.28%E -1.45%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -11.26%E -4.79%K -8.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 03:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.