Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Hurricanes v Louisville Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

64%

36%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Hurricanes (Local)

Prediction 64.46%1.55fair odd

EV -1.38%

Edge -0.904%

Kelly -2.61%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.03%64.55%64.36%66.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.411.451.441.5370.92%68.91%69.20%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louisville Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 35.54%2.81fair odd

EV +1.30%

Edge +0.457%

Kelly +0.703%

Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.10%35.45%35.64%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.662.602.8540.00%37.64%38.46%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Hurricanes (Local): 64.46%; Louisville Cardinals (Visit): 35.54%. For Louisville Cardinals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -9.12%E -6.47%K -22.24%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV +1.30%E +0.457%K +0.703%G +0.009%	6.0%	2026-05-09 16:34
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -9.12%E -6.47%K -22.24%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV +1.30%E +0.457%K +0.703%G +0.009%	6.0%	2026-05-09 16:35
Caesars🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.54%E -4.51%K -14.53%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -0.476%E -0.170%K -0.264%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-09 16:04
BetUS🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -9.12%E -6.47%K -22.24%G +0.000%	2.77I 36.10%NM 33.73%EV -1.54%E -0.557%K -0.871%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-09 16:35
FanDuel🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -7.18%E -4.99%K -16.33%G +0.000%	2.72I 36.76%NM 34.62%EV -3.32%E -1.22%K -1.93%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-09 17:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.54%E -4.51%K -14.53%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -5.81%E -2.19%K -3.52%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-09 16:19
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.46%EV -6.54%E -4.51%K -14.53%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -6.52%E -2.48%K -4.00%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-09 16:24
DraftKings🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.61%E -3.11%K -9.59%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.58%E -2.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-09 13:09
BetMGM🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.61%E -3.11%K -9.59%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.58%E -2.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-09 12:49
Bovada🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.25%E -3.57%K -11.17%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -7.58%E -2.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-09 13:14
Betway🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.18%E -4.99%K -16.33%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.58%E -2.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-09 15:34
BetRivers🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.18%E -4.99%K -16.33%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.58%E -2.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-09 15:35
betPARX🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.18%E -4.99%K -16.33%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.58%E -2.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-09 15:34
Bally Bet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.18%E -4.99%K -16.33%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.58%E -2.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-09 15:35
1xBet🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -4.61%E -3.11%K -9.59%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 36.82%EV -9.72%E -3.83%K -6.31%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-09 16:50
theScore Bet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -1.38%E -0.904%K -2.61%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -11.14%E -4.46%K -7.43%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-09 16:44

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.16%	2.73I 36.63%NM 34.84%	5.1%	2026-05-09 17:34