Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mercer Bears v The Citadel Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

63%

37%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mercer Bears (Local)

Prediction 62.58%1.60fair odd

EV +2.00%

Edge +1.23%

Kelly +3.18%

Growth +0.064%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.63%62.36%62.58%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.481.521.511.6367.57%65.70%66.23%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

The Citadel Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 37.42%2.67fair odd

EV -2.71%

Edge -1.04%

Kelly -1.69%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.59%37.64%37.42%41.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.312.452.462.6043.29%40.85%40.57%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mercer Bears (Local): 62.58%; The Citadel Bulldogs (Visit): 37.42%. For Mercer Bears (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.63, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 58.63%EV +2.00%E +1.23%K +3.18%G +0.064%	2.31I 43.29%NM 41.37%EV -13.56%E -5.87%K -10.35%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-05-21 12:10
888sport🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.25%E -2.78%K -8.03%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.94%E -4.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-21 12:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.25%E -2.78%K -8.03%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.94%E -4.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-21 12:50
888sport (SE)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.25%E -2.78%K -8.03%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.94%E -4.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-21 12:50
DraftKings🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.51%E -3.65%K -10.80%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.45%E -2.58%K -4.30%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-21 12:48
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.51%E -3.65%K -10.80%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.45%E -2.58%K -4.30%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-21 12:49
theScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.13%E -4.09%K -12.26%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.71%E -1.04%K -1.69%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-21 12:39
Bovada🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.13%E -4.09%K -12.26%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.45%E -2.58%K -4.30%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-21 12:48
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.83%EV -6.13%E -4.09%K -12.26%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.17%EV -9.07%E -3.73%K -6.34%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-21 12:49
Betway🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.38%E -4.99%K -15.38%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.45%E -2.58%K -4.30%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-21 12:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 71.83%	2.55I 39.22%NM 28.17%	39.2%	2026-05-21 12:50