Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maryland Terrapins v Michigan Wolverines

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maryland Terrapins (Local)

Prediction 46.79%2.14fair odd
EV +5.28%
Edge +2.35%
Kelly +4.22%
Growth +0.223%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.86%46.07%46.95%48.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.052.002.2551.81%48.67%50.00%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michigan Wolverines (Visit)

Prediction 53.21%1.88fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -5.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.74%53.93%53.05%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.731.751.8061.73%57.85%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maryland Terrapins (Local): 46.79%; Michigan Wolverines (Visit): 53.21%. For Maryland Terrapins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV +5.28%E +2.35%K +4.22%G +0.223%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -13.80%E -8.52%K -22.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV +4.81%E +2.15%K +3.88%G +0.187%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -13.80%E -8.52%K -22.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-01 17:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV +4.81%E +2.15%K +3.88%G +0.187%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -13.80%E -8.52%K -22.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-01 17:34
Caesars🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV +0.601%E +0.280%K +0.523%G +0.003%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -10.08%E -5.96%K -14.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-01 19:04
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV +0.601%E +0.280%K +0.523%G +0.003%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -11.14%E -6.67%K -16.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-01 16:04
FanDuel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -4.55%E -2.23%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -6.35%E -3.61%K -8.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-01 17:40
1xBet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.54%EV -5.95%E -2.96%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -6.88%E -3.93%K -9.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-01 20:55
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.42%E -3.21%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.82%E -3.29%K -7.56%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-01 15:54
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.42%E -3.21%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.82%E -3.29%K -7.56%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-01 15:59
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.42%E -3.21%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.82%E -3.29%K -7.56%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-01 16:09
MyBookie.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.42%E -3.21%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.88%E -3.93%K -9.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-01 17:39
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -8.76%E -4.49%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.42%E -4.26%K -10.02%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-01 17:40
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -9.69%E -5.02%K -10.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -4.22%E -2.35%K -5.28%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-01 18:14
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -9.69%E -5.02%K -10.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -4.22%E -2.35%K -5.28%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-01 18:14
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -9.69%E -5.02%K -10.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -4.22%E -2.35%K -5.28%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-01 18:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.04I 49.02%NM 46.46%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.54%5.5%2026-05-01 21:14