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Marshall Thundering Herd v West Virginia Mountaineers

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marshall Thundering Herd (Local)

Prediction 21.14%4.73fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.228%
Kelly -0.291%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.00%21.08%20.98%21.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.484.504.6823.53%22.34%22.22%21.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

West Virginia Mountaineers (Visit)

Prediction 78.86%1.27fair odd
EV -5.37%
Edge -4.47%
Kelly -26.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.27%78.92%79.02%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.191.191.2085.47%84.27%84.03%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marshall Thundering Herd (Local): 21.14%; West Virginia Mountaineers (Visit): 78.86%. For Marshall Thundering Herd (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.68, with an expected value of -1.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.68I 21.37%NM 20.00%EV -1.07%E -0.228%K -0.291%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.00%EV -7.73%E -6.61%K -45.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-05 21:05
LowVig.ag🎯4.66I 21.46%NM 20.21%EV -1.49%E -0.320%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.79%EV -6.94%E -5.88%K -38.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-05 16:14
BetOnline.ag🎯4.66I 21.46%NM 20.21%EV -1.49%E -0.320%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.79%EV -6.94%E -5.88%K -38.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-05 16:14
888sport🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.87%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.37%E -4.47%K -26.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-05 18:15
888sport (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.87%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.37%E -4.47%K -26.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-05 18:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.87%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.37%E -4.47%K -26.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-05 18:15
DraftKings🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.87%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -6.16%E -5.17%K -32.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-05 15:50
BetMGM🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.87%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -6.16%E -5.17%K -32.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-05 17:39
MyBookie.ag🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -4.87%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.94%E -5.88%K -38.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-05 16:20
BetUS🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -4.87%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.94%E -5.88%K -38.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-05 16:20
Bovada🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -4.87%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.94%E -5.88%K -38.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-05 16:42
BetRivers🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -9.10%E -2.12%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -6.16%E -5.17%K -32.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 18:10
Bally Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -9.10%E -2.12%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -6.16%E -5.17%K -32.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 18:10
betPARX🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -9.10%E -2.12%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -6.16%E -5.17%K -32.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 18:10
Betway🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -10.16%E -2.39%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.27%EV -6.94%E -5.88%K -38.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-05 15:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎5.21I 19.19%NM 18.47%1.18I 84.75%NM 81.53%3.9%2026-05-05 21:45