The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Louisville Cardinals v Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Kickoff: 2026-04-14 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Cardinals (Local)

Prediction 70.10%1.43fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -4.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.44%69.84%70.24%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.351.331.4075.76%74.28%75.19%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (Visit)

Prediction 29.90%3.34fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.403%
Kelly -0.578%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.57%30.16%29.76%32.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.093.103.3034.48%32.39%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Cardinals (Local): 70.10%; Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (Visit): 29.90%. For Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -1.33%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -1.86%E -1.33%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -13.29%E -4.58%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-13 23:35
DraftKings🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -3.96%E -2.89%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -10.30%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-14 19:24
1xBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.14%EV -3.96%E -2.89%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.86%EV -12.39%E -4.23%K -6.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-14 18:50
Caesars🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.66%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -2.83%E -0.869%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-14 21:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.66%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.30%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-14 21:40
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.66%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.30%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-14 19:28
MyBookie.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -4.66%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.48%EV -11.50%E -3.88%K -5.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 21:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.77%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.23%EV -3.72%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-14 21:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.77%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.23%EV -3.72%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-14 21:00
theScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -4.32%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-14 21:39
BetUS🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.11%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.89%EV -6.71%E -2.15%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-14 21:04
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.31%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-14 18:44
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.31%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-14 18:45
Bally Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.31%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-14 18:45
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.30%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-14 19:25
FanDuel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -7.47%E -5.66%K -23.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -1.33%E -0.403%K -0.578%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-14 21:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%4.8%2026-04-14 21:25