The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Louisville Cardinals v Virginia Cavaliers

Kickoff: 2026-05-14 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Cardinals (Local)

Prediction 47.23%2.12fair odd
EV -5.54%
Edge -2.77%
Kelly -5.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.95%47.39%47.15%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.971.982.0052.36%50.82%50.51%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Cavaliers (Visit)

Prediction 52.77%1.90fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -4.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%52.61%52.85%53.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.781.781.8357.47%56.11%56.18%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Cardinals (Local): 47.23%; Virginia Cavaliers (Visit): 52.77%. For Virginia Cavaliers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.90. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.83, with an expected value of -3.43%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -6.07%E -3.41%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-14 22:00
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.60%E -3.73%K -8.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 22:00
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.60%E -3.73%K -8.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 21:58
Caesars🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.60%E -3.73%K -8.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 21:59
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.60%E -3.73%K -8.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 21:59
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.60%E -3.73%K -8.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 22:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.60%E -3.73%K -8.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 21:59
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -6.01%E -3.02%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -3.43%E -1.88%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-14 21:59
MyBookie.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -6.01%E -3.02%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -5.54%E -3.10%K -7.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 22:00
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.48%E -3.27%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.02%E -2.79%K -6.27%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 21:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -6.48%E -3.27%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -6.07%E -3.41%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-14 21:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -6.48%E -3.27%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -6.07%E -3.41%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-14 21:59
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -7.90%E -4.05%K -8.32%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -8.18%E -4.70%K -11.06%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-14 22:00
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -8.84%E -4.58%K -9.51%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -6.07%E -3.41%K -7.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-14 21:59
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -8.84%E -4.58%K -9.51%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -6.07%E -3.41%K -7.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-14 21:59
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -8.84%E -4.58%K -9.51%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -6.07%E -3.41%K -7.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-14 21:59
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.79%E -5.13%K -10.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.02%E -2.79%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-14 21:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.79%E -5.13%K -10.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.02%E -2.79%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-14 21:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.79%E -5.13%K -10.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.02%E -2.79%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-14 21:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.00I 100.00%NM 63.90%1.77I 56.50%NM 36.10%56.5%2026-05-14 22:00