Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Cardinals v Kentucky Wildcats

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

40%

60%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Cardinals (Local)

Prediction 39.78%2.51fair odd

EV +1.03%

Edge +0.405%

Kelly +0.668%

Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.13%39.79%39.16%44.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.302.222.5447.62%43.55%45.05%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kentucky Wildcats (Visit)

Prediction 60.22%1.66fair odd

EV +1.78%

Edge +1.05%

Kelly +2.58%

Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.41%60.21%60.84%62.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.581.601.6966.67%63.33%62.50%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Cardinals (Local): 39.78%; Kentucky Wildcats (Visit): 60.22%. For Kentucky Wildcats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.69, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -16.47%E -7.84%K -14.97%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV +1.78%E +1.05%K +2.58%G +0.046%	6.8%	2026-04-21 22:59
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -14.09%E -6.52%K -12.14%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.69%EV -0.629%E -0.381%K -0.968%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-21 22:58
FanDuel🎯	2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -11.70%E -5.27%K -9.59%G +0.000%	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -1.23%E -0.751%K -1.92%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-21 22:59
BetRivers🎯	2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -13.29%E -6.10%K -11.26%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%EV -3.64%E -2.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-04-21 22:59
betPARX🎯	2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -13.29%E -6.10%K -11.26%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%EV -3.64%E -2.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-04-21 22:59
Bally Bet🎯	2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -13.29%E -6.10%K -11.26%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%EV -3.64%E -2.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-04-21 22:59
Caesars🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.54%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.24%E -2.67%K -7.19%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-04-21 22:59
DraftKings🎯	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV +1.03%E +0.405%K +0.668%G +0.007%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -9.66%E -6.44%K -19.33%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-21 23:00
Bovada🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -0.562%E -0.225%K -0.375%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -9.66%E -6.44%K -19.33%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-21 22:59
Betway🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.54%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -9.66%E -6.44%K -19.33%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-04-21 22:58
theScore Bet🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.54%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -9.66%E -6.44%K -19.33%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-04-21 23:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%	4.0%	2026-04-21 22:59