Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Long Beach State Dirtbags v UC Riverside Highlanders

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Long Beach State Dirtbags (Local)

Prediction 68.65%1.46fair odd
EV -4.58%
Edge -3.29%
Kelly -11.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.45%68.65%68.65%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.371.371.3973.53%72.99%73.26%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UC Riverside Highlanders (Visit)

Prediction 31.35%3.19fair odd
EV -5.95%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -2.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.19%31.35%31.35%32.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.882.973.003.0034.72%33.61%33.33%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Long Beach State Dirtbags (Local): 68.65%; UC Riverside Highlanders (Visit): 31.35%. For Long Beach State Dirtbags (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.39, with an expected value of -4.58%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.45%EV -4.58%E -3.29%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV -9.71%E -3.37%K -5.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 04:05
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.26%E -3.81%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 10:45
DraftKings🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.95%E -4.34%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 02:50
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.64%E -4.88%K -18.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 05:08
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.64%E -4.88%K -18.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 12:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.59%EV -6.64%E -4.88%K -18.43%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.41%EV -6.89%E -2.32%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 14:08
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.33I 75.19%NM 69.21%2.99I 33.44%NM 30.79%8.6%2026-04-19 19:40