Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kentucky Wildcats v Tennessee Volunteers

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 22:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kentucky Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 41.96%2.38fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.593%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.36%41.86%41.91%44.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.232.212.3547.17%44.90%45.25%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tennessee Volunteers (Visit)

Prediction 58.04%1.72fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -4.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.94%58.14%58.09%59.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.621.621.6762.89%61.55%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kentucky Wildcats (Local): 41.96%; Tennessee Volunteers (Visit): 58.04%. For Kentucky Wildcats (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.35, with an expected value of -1.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -1.39%E -0.593%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -7.72%E -4.85%K -13.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-01 21:59
Caesars🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.49%E -1.52%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.97%E -3.69%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-01 17:54
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -3.49%E -1.52%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.72%E -4.85%K -13.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-01 15:38
FanDuel🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -5.17%E -2.29%K -4.10%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -5.97%E -3.69%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-01 18:20
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.59%E -2.48%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.97%E -3.69%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 17:39
DraftKings🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -6.01%E -2.68%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -5.97%E -3.69%K -9.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-01 15:34
BetUS🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%EV -6.85%E -3.09%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%EV -4.23%E -2.57%K -6.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-01 15:29
LowVig.ag🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -7.27%E -3.29%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -4.23%E -2.57%K -6.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-01 15:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -7.27%E -3.29%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -4.23%E -2.57%K -6.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-01 15:35
MyBookie.ag🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.30%EV -7.27%E -3.29%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -5.97%E -3.69%K -9.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-01 18:24
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.69%E -3.49%K -6.41%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.56%E -4.07%K -10.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 20:39
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -8.53%E -3.91%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -5.97%E -3.69%K -9.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 18:14
Bally Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -8.53%E -3.91%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -5.97%E -3.69%K -9.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 18:15
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -8.53%E -3.91%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -5.97%E -3.69%K -9.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 18:14
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -11.05%E -5.21%K -9.86%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -3.07%E -1.84%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-01 16:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%5.2%2026-05-01 21:49