The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Kentucky Wildcats v Louisville Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-04-07 21:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kentucky Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 59.95%1.67fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -5.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.61%60.05%60.00%62.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.571.6166.67%63.72%63.69%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louisville Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 40.05%2.50fair odd
EV +1.73%
Edge +0.681%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.13%39.95%40.00%41.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.342.332.5444.44%42.72%42.92%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kentucky Wildcats (Local): 59.95%; Louisville Cardinals (Visit): 40.05%. For Louisville Cardinals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.50. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -10.08%E -6.72%K -20.15%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV +1.73%E +0.681%K +1.12%G +0.019%6.0%2026-04-07 21:15
Bovada🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -10.08%E -6.72%K -20.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +0.128%E +0.051%K +0.085%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-07 21:20
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.68%E -2.94%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.88%E -1.62%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-07 16:50
FanDuel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.20%EV -6.48%E -4.15%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%EV -5.48%E -2.32%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-07 17:48
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.68%E -2.94%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -5.88%E -2.50%K -4.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-07 17:39
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.88%E -3.75%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.88%E -2.50%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-07 16:50
betPARX🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.05%EV -7.08%E -4.57%K -12.87%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -6.68%E -2.87%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-07 18:20
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.05%EV -7.08%E -4.57%K -12.87%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -6.68%E -2.87%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-07 18:19
Bally Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.05%EV -7.08%E -4.57%K -12.87%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -6.68%E -2.87%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-07 18:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.68%E -2.94%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-07 16:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.88%E -3.75%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.88%E -3.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-07 18:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -3.48%E -2.16%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -8.68%E -3.81%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-07 21:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -3.48%E -2.16%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -8.68%E -3.81%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-07 21:00
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -3.48%E -2.16%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -8.68%E -3.81%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-07 21:00
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.81%EV -4.68%E -2.94%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.19%EV -9.08%E -4.00%K -7.15%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-07 18:39
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.88%E -3.75%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.89%E -4.39%K -7.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-07 21:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.53I 65.36%NM 62.13%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.87%5.2%2026-04-07 21:15