Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kentucky Wildcats v Alabama Crimson Tide

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kentucky Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 57.20%1.75fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.941%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.50%57.08%57.20%57.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.641.631.7262.11%61.00%61.35%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alabama Crimson Tide (Visit)

Prediction 42.80%2.34fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.12%42.92%42.80%45.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.202.2448.78%45.95%45.45%44.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kentucky Wildcats (Local): 57.20%; Alabama Crimson Tide (Visit): 42.80%. For Kentucky Wildcats (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.72, with an expected value of -1.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%EV -1.62%E -0.941%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.50%EV -11.83%E -5.74%K -11.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:15
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -3.33%E -1.97%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -10.12%E -4.82%K -9.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 17:24
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.48%E -2.68%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 17:30
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%EV -4.98%E -2.24%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-14 15:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -5.41%E -2.45%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 15:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -5.41%E -2.45%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 15:45
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 14:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 17:27
MyBookie.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -6.19%E -3.78%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -7.12%E -3.28%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 17:34
FanDuel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.88%EV -6.77%E -4.15%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.12%EV -4.12%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 17:30
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.34%E -4.53%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 14:04
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -7.34%E -4.53%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -6.69%E -3.07%K -5.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 17:10
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -7.34%E -4.53%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -6.69%E -3.07%K -5.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 17:10
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -7.34%E -4.53%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -6.69%E -3.07%K -5.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 17:10
Betway🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.34%E -4.53%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.98%E -3.71%K -6.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 17:29
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.86%EV -7.34%E -4.53%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.14%EV -12.26%E -5.98%K -11.67%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-14 17:45
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.91%E -4.91%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 17:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.91%E -4.91%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.91%E -4.91%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%5.4%2026-03-14 17:30