Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas St Wildcats v Michigan Wolverines

Kickoff: 2026-02-23 00:50 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

55%

45%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas St Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 55.09%1.82fair odd

EV -3.04%

Edge -1.73%

Kelly -4.00%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.69%55.20%55.34%58.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.611.691.691.7662.11%59.08%59.17%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michigan Wolverines (Visit)

Prediction 44.91%2.23fair odd

EV +2.39%

Edge +1.05%

Kelly +1.87%

Growth +0.045%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.39%44.80%44.66%47.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.962.092.052.2851.02%47.78%48.78%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas St Wildcats (Local): 55.09%; Michigan Wolverines (Visit): 44.91%. For Michigan Wolverines (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetUS🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -11.30%E -7.02%K -18.53%G +0.000%	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV +2.39%E +1.05%K +1.87%G +0.045%	6.0%	2026-02-23 00:00
BetMGM🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -10.75%E -6.64%K -17.34%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV +1.05%E +0.465%K +0.837%G +0.009%	6.2%	2026-02-23 00:40
Bovada🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -11.30%E -7.02%K -18.53%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV +1.05%E +0.465%K +0.837%G +0.009%	6.6%	2026-02-23 00:24
theScore Bet🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.90%E -4.08%K -10.00%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-02-22 23:25
DraftKings🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -6.90%E -4.08%K -10.00%G +0.000%	2.14I 46.73%NM 44.13%EV -3.89%E -1.82%K -3.42%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-02-22 23:34
Betway🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -6.90%E -4.08%K -10.00%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.94%E -3.87%K -7.56%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-02-23 00:29
FanDuel🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -3.04%E -1.73%K -4.00%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -8.38%E -4.11%K -8.06%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-02-23 00:30
1xBet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 54.25%EV -8.00%E -4.79%K -11.94%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 45.75%EV -11.08%E -5.60%K -11.30%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-02-23 00:25
BetRivers🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -3.04%E -1.73%K -4.00%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -11.98%E -6.11%K -12.48%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-02-22 23:09
Bally Bet🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -3.04%E -1.73%K -4.00%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -11.98%E -6.11%K -12.48%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-02-22 23:10
betPARX🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -3.04%E -1.73%K -4.00%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -11.98%E -6.11%K -12.48%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-02-22 23:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.