Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas St Wildcats v Cincinnati Bearcats

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

43%

57%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas St Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 43.16%2.32fair odd

EV -2.46%

Edge -1.09%

Kelly -1.95%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.75%43.22%43.15%46.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.032.152.132.2649.26%46.54%46.84%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cincinnati Bearcats (Visit)

Prediction 56.84%1.76fair odd

EV -1.10%

Edge -0.630%

Kelly -1.48%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

53.85%56.78%56.85%58.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.621.671.661.7461.73%59.91%60.24%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas St Wildcats (Local): 43.16%; Cincinnati Bearcats (Visit): 56.84%. For Cincinnati Bearcats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.74, with an expected value of -1.10%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -2.46%E -1.09%K -1.95%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -7.92%E -4.89%K -12.77%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-08 17:24
BetMGM🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.89%E -1.29%K -2.31%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.92%E -4.89%K -12.77%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-08 17:24
theScore Bet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.05%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.08%E -3.04%K -7.58%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-08 17:04
DraftKings🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.05%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.21%E -3.77%K -9.56%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-08 18:30
Bovada🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.05%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.92%E -4.89%K -12.77%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-08 18:33
Caesars🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.94%E -2.33%K -5.71%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-05-08 18:30
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.21%E -3.77%K -9.56%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-08 18:34
BetRivers🎯	2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -8.50%E -4.01%K -7.59%G +0.000%	1.66I 60.24%NM 56.08%EV -5.64%E -3.40%K -8.55%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-08 17:04
betPARX🎯	2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -8.50%E -4.01%K -7.59%G +0.000%	1.66I 60.24%NM 56.08%EV -5.64%E -3.40%K -8.55%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-08 17:04
Bally Bet🎯	2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -8.50%E -4.01%K -7.59%G +0.000%	1.66I 60.24%NM 56.08%EV -5.64%E -3.40%K -8.55%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-08 17:04
BetUS🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.51%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.80%E -1.64%K -3.95%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-08 18:29
LowVig.ag🎯	2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV -9.80%E -4.69%K -8.99%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV -2.80%E -1.64%K -3.95%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-08 18:29
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV -9.80%E -4.69%K -8.99%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV -2.80%E -1.64%K -3.95%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-08 18:30
1xBet🎯	2.03I 49.26%NM 46.15%EV -12.39%E -6.10%K -12.03%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 53.85%EV -1.10%E -0.630%K -1.48%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-08 18:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.27I 44.05%NM 42.68%	1.69I 59.17%NM 57.32%	3.2%	2026-05-08 22:24